| 21 December 2010
For the first time since the Orange Bowl following the 2006 season, the Louisville Cardinals prepare to play in a bowl game. They're back in the state of Florida, but this time in St. Petersburg for the Beef O' Brady's Bowl held in Tropicana Field. The Cardinals will take on a familiar foe in Southern Mississippi out of Conference USA. Southern Miss and Louisville were foes in the old Metro Conference as well as Conference USA before Louisville moved to the Big East in 2005. The two teams also met in Louisville in 2009. The Cardinals won that game 25-23. That Cardinals were led by former coach Steve Kragthorpe in that game, and Southern Miss was playing with very heavy hearts as a teammate had died accidentally early in the week. Those things being the case, this promises to be a very different game and should be an entertaining contrast of styles.
Southern Miss Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora is one of the better offensive minds in college football and the numbers for his 2010 Eagles reflect that. The Eagles average an impressive 457 yards per game of total offense. The Eagles' offense is very balanced as well, rushing for 203 yards per game while throwing for 254. It is not an exaggeration to say that Southern Miss is the most effective offense the Cardinals will have faced in the 2010 season. Keeping an offense that averages 37.6 points per game in check will be a very difficult task. Seven times in 2010, the Eagles scored 40 points or more. QuarterbackAustin Davis makes the Southern Miss offense go. Davis completed 63% of his passes this season while throwing 20 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. Davis finished the season on a roll. In the final four games of the season, Davis threw nine touchdowns and just one interception. On the ground, tailback Kendrick Hardy adds balance to the offense and forces defenses to stay honest. Hardy averaged almost seven yards per carry in 2010, and gouged the Tulsa defense for over 200 yards. The mystery for Southern Miss is how talented wide receivers DeAndre Brown has managed to play in just five games and have such little production. If Brown is healthy and on good terms with the coaches, he'll be a big play threat that Louisville will have a tough time matching up with.
The Louisville defense underwent an extreme makeover in 2010. After a rough 2009, the Cardinals defese exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations in their first year under defensive minded head coach Charlie Strong and first year defensive coordinator Vance Bedford. Louisville's defensive goal is always to make teams one dimensional by stopping the run game and then bringing pressure from all sides to attack the pass. By and large, this strategy worked, and the Louisville defense finished 2010 as one of the best defenses in America. The Cardinals finished 12th nationally in total defense (304.6 yards per game), 15th in scoring defense (18.67 points per game), 9th in passing yards allowed (162.5 yards per game), and 5th in sacks (3.17 sacks per game). Louisville has a surprisingly reliable secondary that allows it to take a lot of chances with blitzes from the corners and linebackers. Senior cornerback Johnny Patrick was named to several all-Big East and even some All-America teams, while redshirt freshman Hakeem Smith was named a freshman All-America by numerous publications. If Patrick and Smith can hold down the secondary, the Cardinals will be free to blitz early and often to cover up the run and make up for a defensive line that doesn't generate a tremendous amount of pressure on its own. Louisville held six of its final seven opponents under 300 yards of total offense.
Louisville Offense vs. Southen Miss Defense
The Louisville offense begins and ends with senior tailback Bilal Powell and the running game. Coming into 2010, Charlie Strong announced that Powell would be the "face of the program" and he delivered on that promise. Powell rushed for 200 yards or more twice in 2010 and finished the season with over 130 yards, despite missing two games due to a knee injury suffered against Pitt. Due to injuries, the Cardinals have been unsettled at times at the quarterback position. Adam Froman started the first eight games of the season·but suffered a deep thigh bruise against Pitt and never returned. Justin·Burke started the Cardinals final four games and filled in admirably, but,·suffered back spasms and had to·exit the·season finale against Rutgers. Third string quarterback Will Stein filled in nicely, even throwing a touchdown pass, in relief of Burke. Strong announced early that Burke will play in the bowl game, with Froman ready to go as a backup. Regardless of who plays, the Cardinals will rely on Powell, redshirt freshman Jeremy Wright (who had a 64 yard touchdown run against Rutgers), senior Blayne·Donnell, and Victor Anderson, to carry the ball early and often. The·running game has been effective because of the Cardinals veteran offensive line that starts four seniors and a third year sophomore up front. With a potent offense on the other sideline, Louisville would love nothing more than to run the ball 30 to 40 times and dominate the time of possession.
Dominating the time of possession won't be an easy task against a Southern Miss defense that, at least statistically, is very stout against the run (113 yards per game allowed). The Eagles' defense has been feast or famine against the run in 2010. Against Marshall, Memphis, and La. Tech, the Eagles allowed less than 50 yards per game on the ground. But against some of the better offenses on their schedule like South Carolina,Tulsa, UAB and East Carolina, the Eagles defense gave up well over 200 yards per game on the ground. The problem for the Eagles has been their propensity to get into shootouts. Five times Southern Miss has been involved in games where both teams scored over 30 points. It would be a surprise to both Louisville and Southern Miss if this games turned out to be that kind of a shootout, but, if it does, it's the kind of game Southern Miss is very comfortable with.
How Will It Al Play Out?
While there is always the possibility of a game coming down to special teams mistakes, injuries, or turnovers, it's hard to break a game down and factor those things in. If the game comes down to offenses against defenses, it should be an entertaining game of strengths vs. strengths. Southern Miss·has been good against the run, statistically, but the better offenses on their schedule have been able to move the ball on the ground and I expect Louisville with the big and experienced offensive line and Powell, to be able to run the ball well. If they can, they should be able to get Burke protection, use screens, rollouts, and bootlegs that keep Burke from being a sitting target in the pocket, and let him utilize tight end Cameron Graham and the only real receiving threat Josh Bellamy.
Conversely, Southern Miss' best hope is to turn the game into a shootout, and that's not something Louisville has allowed any opponent to do this season. Louisville allowed just two opponents to score 30 or more points, and none in the final six games of the season. Look for Louisville to lean heavily on the running game and to blitz Austin Davis early and often. If the can protect the football and not give up field position in the return game like they did against South Florida, Louisville should win the game.
Prediction: Louisville 28 Southern Miss 20
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